When Politics Becomes a Stampede.
In 1942, while imprisoned by the Nazis, the German theologian Dietrich Bonhoeffer wrote words that still echo across troubled societies. He warned that the greatest danger to the good was not evil, but “stupidity”, not lack of intelligence, but a social condition in which people surrender their ability to think and judge for themselves.
Such people, he argued, cannot be corrected by argument as they are no longer guided by reason. They have submitted to power.
Today’s Nigeria offers a troubling illustration.
Across the country, politicians are abandoning opposition parties and defecting en masse to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Governors, lawmakers and party leaders have crossed over with remarkable speed and little explanation. Their reasons are familiar: “alignment with the centre”, “national interest”, “better service to constituents”.
But few Nigerians are deceived.
This is not ideological conversion, it is political survival.
In healthy democracies, political parties compete by persuading citizens. In Nigeria, parties increasingly compete by absorbing rivals. Power is consolidated not through ideas, but through defections.
Very few defectors can clearly explain what new principles they have embraced. Fewer still can point to policy differences that justified their movement. What they have experienced is not enlightenment, but calculation.
Opposition in Nigeria is costly. It limits access to public resources, weakens political machinery, exposes one to selective investigation and reduces influence. Loyalty to power, by contrast, brings protection and opportunity.
Under such conditions, principle becomes inconvenient.
Bonhoeffer observed that “stupidity” thrives where power is concentrated and institutions are weak. In such environments, conformity is rewarded and independence is punished.
Nigeria fits this pattern too closely.
Public institutions are fragile with anti-corruption agencies politicised and courts are slow to deliver justice. Elections are contested and government remains the main route to wealth and influence. Politics is normalised as less about public service than about access.
When dissent becomes dangerous, submission becomes sensible.
Once a few prominent figures defect, others follow, not because they agree, but because isolation is risky. The crowd becomes the guide.
Bonhoeffer spoke of “internal unfreedom”, a loss of moral independence. Most Nigerian politicians suffer from this condition.
Economically, many depend on office for relevance, outside government, their influence fades. Legally, selective enforcement makes opposition uncertain and psychologically, decades of patronage have conditioned leaders to seek godfathers rather than ideas. Morally, public office is seen as entitlement, not trust.
The result is a political class trained to adapt, not to stand. Defection becomes insurance.
Nigeria remains a democracy in form, elections are held. Newspapers publish criticism, courts sit but dominance matters.
As one party absorbs nearly all major actors, competition weakens. Opposition becomes symbolic, debate fades, patronage grows and citizens disengage.
Democracy becomes procedural, not substantive. Power circulates among elites, while voters watch from the margins.
This is not how democracies collapse. It is how they hollow out.
Journalists, activists and civic groups regularly warn about the dangers of one-party dominance. They cite history, quote constitutional principles and appeal to conscience.
Yet defections continue, because appeals do not change incentives.
When political survival depends on loyalty, moral arguments lose force. People do not abandon principle because they are convinced, they abandon it because they feel trapped.
Bonhoeffer believed that people can only recover their moral agency when they are free, economically, legally and socially.
For Nigeria, this means strengthening institutions.
Courts must be independent, anti-corruption agencies neutral, elections must be credible, public finance must be transparent and private enterprise must offer real alternatives to political patronage.
Politicians must be able to survive outside power. Until then, courage will remain rare and conformity rational.
Perhaps the most disturbing aspect of today’s defections is how easily they happen. Few defectors apologise or explain themselves. None fears lasting reputational damage.
Political inconsistency has been normalised. When betrayal attracts no shame, society has lowered its moral expectations. That is a dangerous moment.
Bonhoeffer eventually paid with his life for refusing to surrender his conscience. Nigerian politicians face no such fate. Yet many surrender anyway.
They trade judgment for access, responsibility for protection and principle for proximity. This is not merely a failure of leaders, it is a challenge to citizens.
A democracy survives not only on constitutions, but on character. When voters reward opportunism, opportunism multiplies and when we excuse surrender, surrender spreads.
Nigeria’s future will not be determined only by who holds power, but by how much independence society is willing to demand.
The danger today is not that Nigerians believe too strongly, it is that too many leaders no longer believe in anything at all.
Dr. EK Gwuru, writer, social analyst, and creative strategist based in Nkolo Ikembe. He explores the intersections of culture, governance, and human progress across Africa and the diaspora.
