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Pre-election Macroeconomic Management - Optics or Durability?

Currencies, in election years, are seldom left to markets. In Nigeria, they are drafted into politics. As 2027 approaches, the naira is being asked to perform a familiar trick: look stable long enough for voters to believe everything else might be too.

Under Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Central Bank of Nigeria appears poised to rediscover its pre-election vocation; defending the currency not because it can be defended, but because it must be seen to be. In an economy where the exchange rate is the closest thing to a nominal anchor, even a modest slowing of depreciation buys something precious, the illusion of control. Prices rise less quickly, expectations soften, and the government acquires a temporary sheen of competence.

But illusions are expensive. Nigeria’s structural weaknesses, thin exports, fiscal strain, chronic FX scarcity, do not disappear because the naira is held in place. They accumulate. Defending the currency in such conditions is less a policy than a postponement, financed by reserves, administrative pressure and the ever-fickle patience of foreign portfolio investors.

Those investors, unlike voters, do not require convincing. By mid-2026, they are likely to begin leaving, quietly at first, then all at once. By the final quarter, the exits may look crowded. In a shallow market, it does not take much to move the price; it takes even less to move it quickly. What follows is rarely a glide. It is a snap.

The political logic is straightforward.; before the election, stability is staged. After it, reality is permitted. Should Mr Tinubu win again, the incentive to indulge the naira evaporates. Adjustment, deferred, denied, disguised, returns with interest.

Investors would be wise not to wait for the final act. Keeping the bulk of one’s assets in dollars is not pessimism; it is pattern recognition. Nigeria has seen this play before. The only novelty is how often it is restaged, and how eagerly it is believed each time.

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